The Toronto Blue Jays failed to come to terms on a contract extension with superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this offseason. This sets Guerrero up to be the top name on the open market next offseason, assuming he stays healthy in 2025.
R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports predicted Guerrero would sign a 12-year contract worth $456 million. That’s very similar to the $427 million projected by Spotrac. It’s also way under the $600 million figure that was recently thrown around by Jon Heyman.
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“Guerrero will be a fascinating case study: the public estimates about his next deal are at odds with the history of how front offices view his general profile (i.e. right-handed first basemen),” Anderson wrote. “To wit, Pete Alonso’s $27 million is the richest ever for a free-agent first baseman; Guerrero will make more ($28.5 million) in his final arbitration-eligible season.
“On top of his skill set and age, his distinction as the closest thing to an elite hitter the market will feature for a few years ought to work in his favor. I assume he’ll become the seventh free-agent hitter to clear a $35 million AAV, and he might soar even higher than that.”
Gauging Guerrero’s market is going to be extremely difficult.
On one hand, he’s a first baseman, and first basemen are typically valued pretty low on the market. Pete Alonso failed to clear the $100 million mark despite being a premier power threat.
On the other hand, there hasn’t been a free agent first baseman of Guerrero’s age and ability in quite some time. With Juan Soto resetting the market due to his nearly $800 million deal, Guerrero could venture into the range of $500 million and beyond.
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