Southeast Asia’s third-most-populous country, Vietnam, has seen its birth rate dip to its lowest level since records began, falling short of the replacement rate for a third consecutive year.
Vietnamese officials estimate the fertility rate has dropped to 1.91 births per woman in 2024.
Newsweek reached out to the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry with a written request for comment.
Why It Matters
This marks the third consecutive year that the rate has declined, after reaching 1.93 in 2023 and 2.01 in 2022. A rate of 2.1 is considered necessary to sustain a population.
The downward trend has spurred officials into action over concerns that Vietnam could follow the path of East Asian countries, where fertility rates in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have been falling.
Vietnam has enjoyed strong economic growth, with GDP expanding by more than 5 percent annually, except during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.
However, its population is aging rapidly for a developing country and is projected to become a “super-aged society,” with at least 20 percent of its population over 65 by 2049, if the trajectory remains unchanged.
The falling birth rate is a concern in terms of sustaining economic development and the provision of support for large numbers of elderly people in the future.
What To Know
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Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the health ministry’s population authority, warned that Vietnam’s population of 100 million could begin shrinking by mid-century, Vietnam News Agency reported.
Pham said that if the replacement rate is reached one again and then maintained, the country could enjoy annual population growth of 0.17 percent, or about 200,000 people per year. However, current projections indicate a potential decline of 0.04 percent annually from 2054 to 2059. This is expected to accelerate to 0.18 percent, or 200,000 people per year, from 2064 to 2069, the official said.
What People Are Saying
Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong: Speaking at a conference held by the health ministry’s population department in Hanoi on Friday, Nguyen sounded the alarm, forecasting that the downward trend would continue into the near future.
She cited the gender imbalance of 112 male births for every 100 female births as problematic although this is marks an improvement on recent figures.
Nguyen called for measures to be taken to address problems in areas related to population “quality,” including health care for the elderly and better communication, advocacy, and access to reproductive health care and family planning services.
Vietnam’s Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen said: “Based on the experiences of a number of countries around the world, the Ministry of Health is studying and proposing policies and solutions to firmly ensure the country’s replacement fertility rate.”
What’s Next?
Vietnam’s health ministry is drafting a population law that is set to be introduced to the National Assembly in 2025.
The draft law aims to maintain a replacement-level fertility rate, tailored to various demographics and regions, Le Thanh Dung of the Vietnam Population Authority told Vietnam Plus.
Notably, provisions seek to encourage women to give birth before the age of 35 and to abolish any legal penalties for having a third child.
