Ahead of his inauguration, President-elect Donald Trump’s approval rating is in an unusual place: It’s on the cusp of tipping positive for the first time.
According to 538’s tracker, Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings have converged sharply since he won the election, falling from +8.6 points net unfavorable on November 6 to as low as +0.2 on January 11, before creeping back up a little to around +1 point.
He’s likely to boost over into net positive immediately after his inauguration, enjoying as most presidents do a surge in optimism and hope about a fresh start in the country’s shifting leadership.
But Trump is not a normal politician, and his first term proved highly tempestuous, rocked by controversies and scandals, fueled in part by his off-the-cuff and scattergun style of communication.
He has promised to go even harder in his second term and begin sweeping changes in areas such as immigration, the economy, foreign policy, transgender rights, and more from the very moment he steps back into the Oval Office.
So for how long will Trump enjoy this surge in favorability when he takes office? Newsweek put the question to the experts. Here’s what they said.
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Allan Lichtman: Trump’s Approval Is Still Low
According to the latest 538 average, Trump’s approval rating is still below 50 percent and slightly underwater, with 46.7 percent approving and 47.8 percent disapproving.
Although this represents an improvement for Trump, his approval rating is still low compared to other presidents-elect.
In addition, presidential approval tends to erode after a brief honeymoon period.
Allan Lichtman is distinguished professor of history at American University.
Lee M. Miringoff: Trump Faces Shorter Honeymoon
Given it is Trump 2.0, I anticipate a shorter, if any, honeymoon.
Slimmest majorities in Congress, his winning by an historically low margin in the popular vote, and his pronouncements about Canada, Panama, Greenland, and the Gulf of Mexico could serve as a distraction from moving ahead on his pre-stated agenda.
He could end the Honeymoon himself if he’s not careful.
Lee M. Miringoff is the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
Thomas Gift: It’s Peak Trump—and He Has Momentum
What we’re seeing is peak Trump right now.
He won the electoral college and the popular vote. Virtually all of his legal problems are gone. Republicans are lining up behind Trump to voice their support for his cabinet nominees. The Supreme Court has essentially said the president has near total-immunity. Democrats are fighting among themselves.
There’s not much more Trump could ask for. Biden even gave a farewell speech that essentially conceded that Trumpism is thriving. Trumpism was supposed to be on the way out in 2021.
Now it’s back in—and maybe with more momentum than ever.
Thomas Gift is associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on US Politics (CUSP) at University College London (UCL).
William Howell: Decline Is Inevitable—How Soon and Steep Remains to Be Seen
Presidents routinely start out their terms in office with relatively high approval ratings.
Fresh off an electoral victory and full of promise, much of the public sees them in a positive light; or, more modestly, is at least willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
But routinely, too, presidential approval ratings tend to decline over time. Actions that Trump takes will surely alienate certain portions of the public. And when any number of things go wrong, he’ll be blamed.
There are no hard and fast rule about the length of a honeymoon or the steepness of the subsequent decline.
But a good portion of presidential politics involves holding on to the early advantage for as long as possible, fully aware that eventually they’re likely to be lost.
William Howell is a professor of political science and public policy at Johns Hopkins University.
Ross K. Baker: Trump Is Looking at a Reagan-Style Honeymoon
There has been a mass capitulation to Trump even among some Democrats. I think this points to an extended honeymoon very much like Reagan’s in 1981.
Ross K. Baker is distinguished professor emeritus of political science at Rutgers University.
Thomas Whalen: Trump’s Standing Will Plummet
Once pictures come back of undocumented families being dragged away by jackbooted ICE officials in the dead of night and when inflation explodes again thanks to his ill-advised taxation and immigration policies (hello labor shortage and trade war with China), his standing will plummet further than Kevin Costner western movie saga.
Thomas Whalen is associate professor of social sciences at Boston University.
Brandon Rottinghaus: Trump’s Unconventional Style Make Chances Pretty Low
Honeymoons are rare for presidents and modern polarized politics so any positive bump the president has has to be carefully utilized because they rarely last.
President Trump’s approach to the office has been unconventional to say the least so the likelihood of a positive approval for too too long is pretty low.
It’s worth noting that most presidents have struggled to keep their approval ratings above water. In the polarized world that presidents inhabit, it’s hard to get more than half of the public to support you.
If President Trump can keep his approval numbers high it will give him credibility in the public and some stroke with the opposition in Congress
Brandon Rottinghaus is a professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Houston.
