Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for defense secretary, has lost favor in a prediction market after a 2018 email from his mother was published earlier this week, with betting odds on Sunday evening placing his confirmation chances at 53 percent.
Hegseth, a former Fox News commentator and former National Guard officer, was tapped by Trump last month to lead the Department of Defense (DOD). His nomination received backlash early on, with critics saying he lacks the experience necessary to lead the DOD and raising concerns about some of his previous remarks, including that women should not serve in combat.
In addition, he has faced scrutiny after it was reported that he was accused of sexual assault in 2017, which he has denied and has not been charged over.
On November 29, The New York Times published an email from April 2018 by Hegseth’s mother, Penelope Hegseth, in which she raised concerns about the way he treated women.
“As a woman and your mother I feel I must speak out,” she wrote early on in the email. “You are an abuser of women — that is the ugly truth and I have no respect for any man that belittles, lies, cheats, sleeps around, and uses women for his own power and ego. You are that man (and have been for years) and as your mother, it pains me and embarrasses me to say that, but it is the sad, sad truth.”
The email concluded: “On behalf of all the women (and I know it’s many) you have abused in some way, I say… get some help and take an honest look at yourself…”
These claims have not been proven, with Penelope Hegseth telling the Times she sent her son an “immediate” apology and that she wrote the email “in anger, with emotion” due to personal struggles with his wife at the time. She said the allegations in the email were “not true” and that publishing the email would be “disgusting.”
Hours before the Times published the email, Polymarket, a platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of various events, showed a 63 percent chance that Hegseth would be confirmed. Now, following the email’s release, the prediction market reflects a 53 percent chance he will be confirmed, with a total of over $180,700 wagered.
Newsweek has reached out to Hegseth’s lawyer for comment via email on Sunday.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
The bet is part of a broader pool on Trump’s Cabinet nominees, with more than $4 million wagered.
As of Sunday evening, Hegseth holds the lowest odds of confirmation, according to the prediction market. Former Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick for director of national intelligence, follows Hegseth, with the market estimating there’s a 62 percent chance she will be confirmed.
While some of Trump’s Cabinet picks have raised eyebrows, the U.S. Senate rarely blocks nominations and has done so only once when controlled by the same party as the White House—Charles Warren, a Republican nominee for attorney general in 1925.
The Senate is responsible for confirming appointees via simple majority. Nominations can be withdrawn by the president or the nominee, especially when it appears that they might not garner enough votes in support. Last month, former Representative Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican, withdrew himself from consideration for U.S. attorney general, saying in an X, Twitter, post, “it is clear that my confirmation was unfairly becoming a distraction to the critical work of the Trump/Vance Transition.”
Gaetz’s nomination raised eyebrows as he was the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation over allegations that he “engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use” and was part of a scheme that led to the sex trafficking of a 17-year-old girl. He has denied any wrongdoing.
In addition, some questioned Gaetz’s ability to lead the Justice Department, citing his limited legal experience and the fact that DOJ previously investigated him.
Florida’s former attorney general Pam Bondi has since been nomination by Trump for U.S. attorney general.
